Soma Datta Reddy and Sunitha Palissery, Earthquake Engineering Research Centre, , India

Seismic signal classification plays a crucial role in mitigating the impact of seismic events on human lives and infrastructure. Traditional methods in seismic hazard assessment often overlook the inherent uncertainties associated with the prediction of this complex geological phenomenon. This work introduces a probabilistic framework that leverages Bayesian principles to model and quantify uncertainty in seismic signal classification by applying a Bayesian Convolutional Neural Network (BCNN). The BCNN was trained on a dataset that comprises waveforms detected in the Southern California region and achieved an accuracy of 99.1%. Monte Carlo Sampling subsequently creates a 95% prediction interval for probabilities that considers epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. The ability to visualize both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties provides decision-makers with information to determine the reliability of seismic signal classifications. Further, the use of Bayesian CNN for seismic signal classification provides a more robust foundation for decision-making and risk assessment in earthquake-prone regions.

Seismic signal classification, Bayesian networks, Uncertainty quantification, Earthquake forecasting, Model trustworthiness.